School Board Releases Updated Study on Fiscal, Enrollment Impact of Chap Crossing

An updated study done for the Chappaqua Central School District Board of Education portrays a negative outlook on how it could be impacted by the Chappaqua Crossing proposal for the former Reader's Digest site. Robert Charles Lesser & Co., on behalf of Keane & Beane, which serves as the school board's counsel, did the study. A new iteration of an October study, the numbers are given along with more detail and background information.

The findings assume increases of 127-198 new students generated, either directed or indirectly by the development, with two scenarios given for how the increases would take place. The fiscal impact, projected from 2010-2030 is also examined, with negative impacts ranging from $53.3 million to $101.1 million, depending on the scenario.

The board took up the updated study at its Tuesday meeting.

"The numbers are big and scary," said board member Alyson Kiesel, referencing 20-year future projections on how the average cost per student factors in. The cost is found by taking a given school budget and dividing it by the number of students in the district. Kiesel also expressed concern about the impact beyond the 20 years projected.

Student Projections: Two Scenarios

Projections for possible new students in the district were based on two models: A "Most Likely Scenario," which projects 198 students, and a "Conservative Scenario," which projects 127. Both versions not only look at potential new students from the proposal itself, but estimate if new students will come to the district based on existing residents selling their single-family homes to families with kids, before moving into the complex.

The first scenario assumes a rate of 0.39 students per household for multifamily units under Chappaqua Crossing – based on similar multifamily housing locally, and in the Byram Hills and Briarcliff Manor school districts - with 78 new students from the development projected. As for intra-town moves from single-family homes to the complex, it is assumed that 109 homes, or 55 percent of the "local market" will be vacated in connection with the development, with 120 new students in the school system, totally 198. This is based on a student generation rate of 1.27 students per household, which is assumed by looking at "a representative neighborhood," the Random Farms section of town.

The second scenario has a rate of 0.31 students per multifamily household, a figure calculated by using regional data – the school district included - from the U.S. Census American Community Survey data from 2006-08. A local market figure of 55 percent is also assumed for vacated housing, and single-family homes in this scenario are assumed to have a lower student generation rate, which is 0.66. There are 62 new students estimated as a result of Chappaqua Crossing and 65 estimated from families who move into single-family homes sold by residents who are moving into the development.

The housing, particularly the condos, is seen in the study as quite desirable, given that they (except for the townhomes) will be taxed at a lower rate than expensive single-family housing, combined their the school district's desirability. Another hypothetical scenario given, in which people who live outside of the district will rent or purchase units to become eligible to enrollment their children in the district. This is viewed as an additional burden because, RCLCO claims, "it may increase the number of students in the School District without increasing the tax revenues resulting in a negative

impact on the District."

The figures were first raised in an earlier study from Oct. 21, but with more information for context added the second time.

Fiscal Impact: Expenditures vs. Revenue

RCLCO projects that the housing could generate roughly $1.61 million in annual revenue, or $978,000 for townhouses and $633,000 for condos. The townhouses will be taxed on a "fee simple basis," placing them on the same level as single-family homes, based on an October modification that property owner and developer Summit/Greenfield made to its proposal.

The condos will have their own rate, which is lower. However, RCLO raises the possibility of property tax certiorari challenges in attempts by owners to get their tax bills lowered. While this scenario is not included in the projections, it is believed by RCLCO that this will negatively impact the fiscal situation due to less revenue as a result of successful challenges.

Projected drops in state aid over the coming years are assumed to further a negative fiscal impact, by a range of $82,000 to $128,000 annually.

On the expenditures side, $136.1 million in spending is estimated for the 198-student scenario, while the number is $87.3 million in the case for the 127-student version, assuming an annual rise of three percent in the annual cost per student, which currently stands at $26,455 and is believed to increase to $28,300 for the 2011-12 school year.

Even larger expenditure increases from the new enrollment are estimated if the annual per-student percentage increases by more than that. Assuming a four-percent annual increase, the numbers rise to $117.3 million for "most likely" and $63.7 million for "conservative." Under a five-percent increase, the corresponding numbers are $135.6 million and $75.4 million.

Overall, the "most likely" scenario with higher enrollment projects a negative fiscal impact on the school district of $101.1 million from 2010 to 2030, and $53.3 million under the "conservative" scenario. It is assumed that that district will receive total revenue of $34 million to $34.9 million, but that there could be expenses of $136.1 million ("most likely") or $87.3 million ("conservative"), which would more than offset any financial gains from the housing. On an average annual basis, the more dire scenario foresees a negative impact of $4,818,000, with a negative impact of $2,540,000 for the conservative version. Respective revenues are $1,663,000 ("most likely") and $1,617,000 ("conservative"), while average annual expenditures are projected to be $6,481,000 and $4,157,000, respectively.