Town Releases Market Study for Chappaqua Crossing Retail

A new market study done for the Town of New Castle suggests that the proposed retail plan for Chappaqua Crossing could be done without significant overlap with existing merchants.

The report is from AKRF and was made public late last week through the town's website. It included estimates of local sales, retail inventory in the downtowns of Chappaqua and Millwood, and demand for types of retail. It was done in response to a study released earlier this year by HR&A, a firm that put the findings together on behalf of site developer Summit/Greenfield.

The study classifies retail shopping patterns in "trade areas," with one form being a primary trade area, where merchants get most of their repeat business from, and the other being a secondary trade area that makes up much of the remainder. The two hamlets are given primary trade areas of 1-mile radiuses from their downtown centers, while the secondary trade area for merchants is the town as a whole. The proposal for Chappaqua Crossing, which includes 120,000 square feet and including a grocery store of 36,000 to 66,000, is given a primary trade area that is defined by a 10-minute drive to the site and a secondary one that involves a 15-minute drive. The results mean that the primary area goes along the Route 117 corridor, from Katonah to Hawthorne, while the secondary one is roughly from Purdys to White Plains.

AKRF argues that for most categories, there is unmet demand in New Castle. Typically primary trade areas should have 70 to 80 percent of sales, the report reads, while the number for secondary areas is 15 to 20 percent. However, AKRF notes, with the exception of personal services, which are defined as including nail salons and spas, capture rates are below than typical levels. This indicates, the study notes, that there is "leakage," or spending that is taken outside of the area. Monetary estimates, broken down for the primary and secondary trade areas for the hamlets and the town, show that for most types of retail the estimated value of sales taking place locally is below the value of total demand.

Overall, AKRF estimates that the Chappaqua hamlet has 150,600 of retail space square footage and about 93 stores. Its estimates for the Millwood hamlet are 70,200 square feet and roughly 27 stores. The vacancy rates for Chappaqua are for just four stores, two of which will soon be filled by Walgreens and an ice cream shop, while just one Millwood store is vacant.

"In terms of unmet consumer demand, the retail categories with the highest leakage are generally within retail categories where products are offered in larger formats (e.g., grocery stores, general merchandise stores)," AKRF's study reads. "In this respect, the Chappaqua Crossing project presents an opportunity to capture exported consumer dollars, and from a tax base perspective better capitalize on Town-generated commercial demand. For consumers, Chappaqua Crossing could provide retail offerings as part of larger-format stores that compliments existing retail offerings."

The study also lends support to restricting the sizes of storefronts at Chappaqua Crossing. The proposed rezoning legislation to allow for the plan calls for limiting the number of storefronts under 5,000 square feet to just four.

"While there could be competitive effects on local retailers within these categories, the new larger-format retail would more directly overlap with offerings outside of hamlets," the study states. "Chappaqua Crossing could still provide retail offerings in these sectors that are viable and that would not have significant competitive effects on hamlet retailers."

AKRF also argues that Summit/Greenfield's site plan, which is dubs a "Power Center," would be less likely to present competition to the hamlets than an alternative layout proposed by New Castle Planning Board member Tom Curley, which it calls a "Town Center." Curley's layout envisions a series of buildings aligned along a main street-style corridor and being closer together. Summit/Greenfield has expressed interest in incorporated elements of his concept into its site plan.

"While this “place making” has its advantages from urban design and neighborhood character perspectives, it would more directly compete with the function of the hamlet centers, rather than providing a complement to Chappaqua’s walkable downtown and neighborhood-scale retailing through its larger space and more auto-oriented shopping," AKRF notes.

The town board will continue public hearings tonight on the rezoning legislation, along with proposed changes to the town development plan to enable the proposal. The hearings start at 7 p.m. at town hall in Chappaqua.