Forecasters Ponder Storm Scenarios as Sandy Heads North

The storm reached hurricane status today—but what it might do this weekend is the question for New York.

The National Weather Service is closely monitoring Hurricane Sandy to see what impact it might have on the area as it moves up the coast. Sandy officially strengthened to hurricane level as it hit Jamaica Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

"But it's what could happen after that that has some weather forecasters pondering some rather bizarre scenarios — think if a hurricane and nor'easter mated, possibly spawning a very rare and powerful hybrid storm, slamming into the Boston-to-Washington corridor early next week, with rain, inland snow, damaging winds, and potential storm surge flooding," said Andrew Freedman, blogging for Climate Central.

The impact the storm has on New York depends on how the storm tracks over the next five days or so. 

Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for the Weather Channel, says the forecasting models are beginning to agree but it's still too early—the main concern now is the Caribbean islands that are in the storm's path.

Whether the storm moves out to sea or up the coast, the National Weather Service says a large area could be affected based on its size.

Stay with Patch for more information as the storm develops.

Chris McHugh (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 03:30 PM
I hope this system steers clear of us.
Josh Semendoff October 24, 2012 at 03:38 PM
Everyone better get their fall foliage pictures in now because if the storm hits, all the leaves will all be in our back yards!
Krista Madsen (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 03:45 PM
I'm on it! http://patch.com/A-yTsm
Joan October 24, 2012 at 03:47 PM
Not another Fall snow storm!
Lisa Gentes-Hunt (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 03:52 PM
Hoping it won't rain out all the Halloween festivities this weekend!
Michael Woyton (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 04:10 PM
Not another Halloween snow storm!
Susan October 24, 2012 at 04:23 PM
Ha ha. I got married last year in the October Blizzard. I guess my first anniversary is going to be a wild ride again.
Ashley Tarr (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 04:25 PM
Crossing my fingers that we miss this. Last year Putnam officials advised everyone to hold off on trick-or-treating for a week because of the storm (http://southeast.patch.com/articles/county-executive-refrain-from-trick-or-treating). No one wants a repeat!
Michael Woyton (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 04:46 PM
Please, Susan, let's find another way for you to celebrate your anniversary. And congratulations, too!
Ashley Tarr (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 04:49 PM
Here's what Mike Santos, a member of the email group Brewster 10509, just wrote (it's Brewster-specific, but really could apply for other parts of Putnam, Westchester, etc.): "There is no way yet of telling how this storm may affect the 10509 area. Keeping in mind the Halloween storm last year, it is probably advisable to review your emergency preparedness for the coming season of storms. Based on previous storms, the loss of power and difficulty in communications will be the big issues. It's a good time to check flashlights and/or generators, buy more batteries and/or fuel, count candles, keep phones and electronic communication devices at full charge, keep the vehicle[s] topped off, and otherwise plan how your family will get through the loss of power for a day, a few days, or even a week. The Town and Village governments are urging folks to enrol in the NY Alert System. That way, you can get official information on demand during a crisis. If you haven't yet joined, please do. http://www.nyalert.gov/"
Rich October 24, 2012 at 05:25 PM
There is low potential for a major coastal storm with heavy rainfall, high winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion early next week. This will ultimately depend on the eventual track and evolution of tropical cyclone Sandy as it interacts with a deepening upper level low pressure system approaching the east coast. The storm may very well just move out to sea and have little if any impact on our weather. Forecast confidence is still low at this point...since Sandy is still in the Caribbean Sea and any potential impacts are still at least several days away. Please refer to this link (www.tarrytownnyweather.com/wxforecast.php ) for the latest update., then click on Hazardous Weather Outlook. tarrytownnyweather.com
Lanning Taliaferro (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 05:34 PM
Thanks, Rich! It's hard for a layperson to understand what all these forecasting models signify.
Sarah Studley (Editor) October 24, 2012 at 05:59 PM
Glad to hear it! Thank you, Rich.
John Anderson October 24, 2012 at 06:03 PM
Going to go fill up all my gas tanks for the generator we bought after the last storm.
Yvonne Stahl October 24, 2012 at 09:30 PM
foRGET GENERATORS-Hug your significant other to keep warm!!!!!
Yvonne Stahl October 24, 2012 at 09:31 PM
_and keep a stash of condoms so that all that huggin to keep warm during a power outage doesn't result in an unplanned pregnancy.
Mike October 24, 2012 at 09:41 PM
looks like the threat is becoming a lot more serois as more computer models appear to be agreeing that this is not going out to see. We also have a Full Moon on Monday which could intensify potentail flooding. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/mega-storm-threat-growing-for-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-early-next-week-from-sandy/2012/10/24/0b7f1148-1e06-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html
joshua tanner October 24, 2012 at 10:06 PM
The regional weather pattern the last decade+ has been harsh late Octobers/early Novembers and then mild again by December. We had one storm in lat 90's that flattened so many trees along the Taconic it looked like King Kong had gone jogging
eatingdogfood October 24, 2012 at 10:41 PM
Bunch of alarmists.
Jacqueline Russo October 25, 2012 at 05:27 AM
Rich October 25, 2012 at 11:23 AM
There is increasing confidence that the tri-state area will feel the impacts of a major coastal storm late this weekend into early next week. This includes the potential for heavy windswept rainfall, coastal flooding and beach erosion. The specific impacts will ultimately depend on the eventual track and evolution of Tropical Cyclone Sandy as it interacts with a deepening upper level low pressure system approaching the east coast. Click here www.tarrytownnyweather.com/wxforecast.php for the most current Hazardous Weather Outlook.
pauline schneider October 26, 2012 at 02:35 PM
Ashley! Spot on correct! I just sent such an email blast to my peeps who have significant email lists. Remember to store enough food for family & pets, water, medicines, batteries. Sump pumps back up power, (its supposed to rain for at least 5 hours), talk to your neighbors, check on any elderly folks, new babies, little children, etc. Trim dead tree limbs. Do it now while there is still power and gas at the stations, and food in the markets. Don't wait. Good luck!
pauline schneider October 26, 2012 at 02:39 PM
NOAA is warning us to get ready. The last three storms have been declared disasters. Better to be safe than sorry. http://news.yahoo.com/noaa-east-beware-coming-frankenstorm-171317994.html
yjnuuuuu November 04, 2012 at 01:37 PM
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